Sunday, April 10, 2011

Buying Lottery: Luck vs Probability. Who will be the ultimate winner?

   Do you have a habit of buying lottery ticket? If yes, the chances of winning the lottery is very low. You probably lose a lot money to lottery company before you realized it. The more money you invest in lottery, the more you lose. When you buying a lottery ticket, you are betting against lottery company using your own luck. Can you use your own luck beat over the odds (probability). I doubt it.

This is result of da mai cha lottery

    For example if you buy a lottery ticket from da ma cai for 1+3D games, the numbers will be ranging from "0000" to "9999". There will be ten thousands of four-digit numbers/ Let's say that you just buy a random four-digit numbers, probability that you will win the lottery  for any prizes is 0.01% (1/10000 * 100 = 0.01%).  In other words, in your 10000th times of buying lottery ticket you will win one time (1 in 10000).

  Now, let's we look at the prize structure of 1+3D games.

   In this prize structure, there will be 23 prizes to claim in each game of lottery (either 1+3D category or 3D category). Beside first,second, third prize for you to win, there will be 10 more reward to win in each of starter and consolation prize. When you double your bet, reward of your prize will be double as well. For example if you bet RM2 in lottery ticket, the reward of first prize will be RM7000. However, the odd of winning of one the prize will remain the same despite you double your amount of bet.

   Anyone who buying lottery must be aiming for the main prize. However, the chances of winning the first prize is less than being struck by lightning. Let's calculate what is probability that you winning the main prize of 1+3D lottery games.The probability of winning lottery is 0.0001 [p(A)] & the probability of winning first prize out of 23 prize is 0.04 [p(B)].

    By assuming the event A is winning lottery and event B is winning the main prize (which is the occurrence of one is unrelated to the probability of the occurrence of the other). We can use this formula  p(A and B) = p(A) x p(B). 

1. Probability of winning the main prize if you won a lottery game
p(A and B) = p(A) x p(B).
                       = 0.0001 x 0.04
                       = 0.000004

2. Percentage of  winning the main prize if you won a lottery game
    = 0.0004%

    What does the percentage of winning the main prize mean? It's mean you most probably will win the main prize once in 250000 attempt of buying lottery. It's pretty insignificant number to me. If you don't buy a lottery the percentage of winning is just 0%. However if you bet, the chances of winning lottery is just 0.001%. For me, lottery ticket is just a ripoff and it's not worth your time & your money to invest in it.

    If you can fork out some money out like RM200 (66 U.S dollars) per month, I highly recommend you to invest it in government bond such as Amanah Saham Malaysia (ASM) / Unit Trust of Malaysia . You will at least get 6% interest per year from investment in government bond. It's better investment option rather than losing your money to lottery company.

   Don't forget that lottery company is involve in business industry (betting). Of course, they won't create any betting games or system that can't generate a large amount of income for them. They will create a betting games or system which is very hard for us to win such as 1+3D games. The reward for the main prize is tempting. However, i personally think that RM3500 (1158 US dollars) for a main prize is just too little for a game that you only have 0.0004% to win. They earn their profit with our money that we lose in lottery. Which means the more we lose, the more they earn.

    In the end, lottery company will be the ultimate winner of this betting games in a long run. Don't be such a loser and stop buying lottery. It's not worth to invest our hard-earned money into this kind of ripoff business. There a lot of options out there which we can diversify our income safely without losing our money.


  1. Not about probability lar bro. About luck....pure damn good unbelievable luck!

  2. Most of people think that they have very good luck and will get rich by buying lottery. Till they think they can beat the odds/probability =_="


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